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One day I had picked up twice before getting the 30 face value tiles in sets needed to first go down. Then I put them down and proceeded to put down all my remaining tiles. What were the chances of that happening? Must be pretty slim! There were three players.

Rummikub Rules: Usually in Rummikub it takes about 15-30 minutes for someone to put down all their tiles. You have to pick up if you can’t go. People put down sets of numbers either all the same number but different colours or a run of the same colours. Each time there must be 3 tiles in the set. The first time you put down one or more sets the face value of them must add to 30. Once you’ve gone down you can then add your tiles to what others have put down if your tiles fit in with their set. Once there are more than 3 in a set you can take the forth tile and move it to create your own set. You can split longer sets up provided there is always at least three left. There are also a couple of wild tiles. If a wild tile makes up a set, you can take it if you can replace it with the correct number it is in place of in a set. Then you can add it to two matching tiles in your hand to make a fresh set of three. Eventually you put everything down.

doppelgreener
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JLC
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  • can you clarify your question? Because right now the best answer is: "yes, must be pretty slim!". If you are looking for an answer of "x percent" then specify exactly the scenario. – Cohensius Mar 04 '23 at 20:59
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    The question's entirely clear and doesn't need further clarification: what are the odds of a perfect first turn? “Yes, must be pretty slim!” would not be the best answer, nor even an acceptable one. A good answer will lay out the actual odds. – doppelgreener Mar 04 '23 at 23:08
  • "I had picked up twice before getting the 30" -> won the round on Turn 3.
    where some melds placed on the table by other players that offered Add/Switch opportunities?     – Cohensius Mar 05 '23 at 10:46
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    Yes there were other sets on the table that presented opportunities to put things down. I am not sure exactly how many. I think you are probably right, the chances are slim! Probably impossible to calculate. – JLC Mar 05 '23 at 11:53
  • Must be pretty slim! -- For a given scenario it is possible to get an approximation of the chances with a game simulator running Monte-Carlo experiments. – Cohensius Mar 05 '23 at 21:59

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