I recently obtained good results with a high-precision numerical orbital propagator using a constant effective area for drag and radiation pressure. I have now become interested in checking if the accuracy can be improved by using a variable effective area, i.e., values that vary along propagation to provide a more accurate calculation of the drag and radiation pressure to which a satellite is subject.
My understanding is that this requires knowing what is known as satellite attitude, i.e., its orientation in 3D, in addition to a model of the shape of the satellite. By combining these, we can get an estimate of the cross-section of the satellite at a given time, and an estimate of the effective surface of the satellite subject to radiation pressure.
To simplify things, let's assume a simple box-wing model, with a central body with 2 flat panels attached. Is there any simplified model that allows predicting the satellite attitude as a function of the position, speed, acceleration and forces at a given instant?
Is there a way to model such improving the accuracy of a high-precision numerical propagator by using a variable