The recent CNBC video How Ex-SpaceX Engineers Are Fueling The Space Race With Firefly (linked below) is worth a watch, and notes include the following:
a team comprised of industry veterans, Firefly Aerospace wants to be a dominant launch provider in the growing small satellite market.
The video says that their two stage expendable carbon fiber rocket will put a 1000 kg payload into LEO, with plans to extend that capability to 1,500 kg.
In the screen shot below a graphic lists this together with three competitors for mass to LEO (defined there as 160 to 1000 km).
Question: What are the primary business challenges for Firefly Aerospace to capturing a large enough market share of the one-ton payload market to be successful?
These numbers suggest abl Space Systems is very competitive on paper, but a lot can change in the next few years. Is there a big one-ton payload market out there; what would factors prevent a simple, cheap, throw-away one-ton launcher company from being able to capture this market and hold on to it?
| Provider | up to (kg) | cost (\$million) | ratio (\$million/100 kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Firefly Aerospace | 1,000 | 15 | 1.5 |
| Rocket Lab | 300 | 7 | 2.3 |
| ASTRA | 100 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| abl Space Systems | 1,350 | 12 | 0.9 |
| SpaceX F9 (for context) | 22,800 | 62 | 0.3 |
related:
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