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It appears that objects in orbit around Earth can be visualized in any of a number of websites. These sites use actual tracking data in order to depict the current position, velocity vector, and projected path of any given object. However, it seems that this is based on "recent" tracking data, meaning that for objects not imminently de-orbiting, the path projection is valid within some degree of accuracy.

When the Long March core (2021-035B) de-orbited, these tracking sites appeared to be showing "current" data based on orbital elements derived from "recent" observation - the depicted "current" status is itself an extrapolation based on observation made hours if not days ago. Consequently, what appears to be "current" status for a de-orbiting object isn't really, and representing it as "live tracking" is really not so - it is more of an expectation based on certain assumptions rather than up-to-the-minute observation. To some extent, this is the best that can be done because there's likely no practical way to continuously observe every object everywhere in orbital space all the time. In the case of the Long March core, its re-entry was not observed and only estimated to be over the Indian Ocean.

My question is: within practical limits, is there true "live" tracking available/possible, at least for large de-orbiting objects for which path prediction becomes rapidly inaccurate/unreliable, and which could pose a threat in the unlikely event one came down over a populated area? If so, would it be offered as a public feed or would it risk exposing classified information about military/intelligence assets or capabilities?

Anthony X
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  • "These sites use actual tracking data..." this isn't really correct. These sites use TLEs and those are ephemerides, and low quality ones at that. They are cooked up in a less-than-transparent manner in a less-than-transparent office using less-than-transparent algorithms that first look at a variety of tracking data, make good future predictions via less-than-transparent propagators. The agency then releases those predictions to certain organizations and customers who keep them private. – uhoh May 09 '21 at 17:29
  • The agency then dumbs down the prediction further and then devises a TLE that when run in SGP4 will produce a trajectory that isn't so very different than the dumbed-down version of the prediction, also in a less-than-transparent manner. – uhoh May 09 '21 at 17:30
  • That said do you only want answers that refer to government/military tracking, or will you also be interested in hearing about amateur satellite tracking and the TLEs that they produce. You may not realize it but some of those TLEs come from amateurs! How (the heck) are military satellites with (apparently) classified TLEs still showing up on sat map websites? – uhoh May 09 '21 at 17:33
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    @uhoh I suppose formality of authority is less of a concern than overall confidence. An amateur with a proven track record for timely and accurate data would be preferred over stale/sanitized government/military releases. FWIW is a 4hr-old TLE meaningful when an object is on its final orbit before re-entry, no matter who produces it? – Anthony X May 09 '21 at 18:39

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