Ever since the blockade of Gaza started there’s been talks of mass starvation in Gaza. But upon checking the Wiki article on the war I was surprised to find out only 32,000 people have died on the Palestinian side of the conflict so far (according to Hamas officials), which suggests that there’s still enough food for the local residents.
So… are there still plenty of food reserves/supplies in Gaza? Or is Hamas under accounting hunger casualties among their citizens?
Let's unpack some of this.
That works out to 1.5%-ish of the population of Gaza. That's a lot, after 6 months of war. For reference compare it to WW2's death rates, after 6 years of war. It's more than what France suffered at 1.26%, more than the UK at 0.76% and the US at 0.32%.
Now, as I have answered before, Gaza is an outlier in its challenges: it was never going to be easy to remove Hamas from a big city where civilians can't be evacuated. Combat deaths and collateral casualties amounting to 32000 would be excessive to avenge 10/7's 1300 deaths. But is it excessive to remove the threat of 10/7 happening again? Others can argue about it either way, I'll sit that out.
But by no means does that proportion of deaths in a total population deserve the qualifier "only 32000".
Let's state the obvious here. Both sides are going to talk up their angle and members of the public will have no way to know, which is why I voted to close.
Nor do we know who is more at fault with the alleged famine, though many of us have opinions, one way or another.
Hamas will talk up deaths and talk down delivered aid.
Israel will talk down deaths and talk up delivered aid.
Possibly and possibly not. We have had numerous warnings from the IPC, a UN agency (yes, of course, if someone wants to make a talking point out of that, they can) that was set up specifically to provide advance warnings of famine worldwide.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC) was activated on 1 March 2024 by the IPC Global Support Unit (GSU) considering the extreme severity of the evidence provided.
The findings of the FRC review confirm that Famine is now projected and imminent in the North Gaza and Gaza Governorates and is expected to become manifest from mid-March 2024 to May 2024. The Famine threshold for acute food insecurity has already been far exceeded and the steeply increasing trend in malnutrition data indicates that it is highly likely that the Famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been exceeded. The FRC expects the upward trend in non-trauma mortality to accelerate and for all Famine thresholds to be passed imminently.
FEWS - Famine Early Warning System, a US agency, March 18th:
Famine (IPC Phase 5) is imminent in northern Gaza, likely by May
Or even (anonymous) State Dept officials, according to Reuters:
"While we can say with confidence that famine is a significant risk in the south and center but not present, in the north it is both a risk and quite possibly is present in at least some areas," the official said on condition of anonymity.
At the risk of stating the obvious: Reuters is not Al-Jazeera, so claims of bias should be assessed accordingly.
True, famine deaths are probably a tiny fraction of overall deaths at this point. However, bear in mind that, a) they provide limited military gains and b) if intentional by either side, they would constitute a clear war crime.
In a previous answer, I have claimed that famines start out slowly and then can quickly snowball. So, time to back that up.
Not claiming that the situation is necessarily very similar to Gaza **, but here's a death timeline from a historical study of the 1944-1945 Dutch "hunger winter" (which resulted in a total of 10-25k excess deaths) and lasting health complications in the survivors.
Figure 2 shows monthly deaths combing all causes (rates per 1,000 population) for the years 1944–7 in The Netherlands, by sex, in the locations of interest.
Things to consider:
Now, if we'll stop bickering for a second about who is causing this alleged famine, can we at least agree that it is to everyone's best advantage to minimize the risk of it actually happening?
(call me conspirationally-minded here, but a famine might work out best for Hamas, especially if Israel gets the blame)
No, this answer is not claiming that the 1944 Netherlands == 2024 Gaza or are even largely comparable. Only that complacency at this current time (March 31, 2024) could end up being misplaced and it is basing that on showing the mortality timeline for a, well-documentated, wartime famine event.
* Hamas is a terrorist organization and has repeatedly lied about 10/7. Normally I'd be inclined to trust the Israeli government a whole lot more on its claims. That is still largely true, but one needs to take into account who is running the aid efforts on their side: B. Smotrich.
** differences might include:
The World Bank has reported that half of Gazans are at imminent risk of catostrophic famine. The World Health Organization has said more or less the same. Even Israel's staunchest international allies are warning that famine is already present in the enclave. The US state department has said that famine is present. UK foreign secratary David Cameron has urged Israel to allow more aid in. Clearly if the view of UK intelligence was that there are stockpiles of food in Gaza, he wouldn't be saying this. Similarly, Lloyd Austin, US defence secratary, has urged Israel to do more to deal with the humanitarian disaster and imminent famine in Gaza. Actually, I am not aware of a single major international body or goverment (other than Israel) that denies the dire situation in Gaza. So to answer your question, no there are no stockpiles of foods in Gaza, and yes children are tragically already starving to death and more will starve in the future if Israel does not lift its blockade.
Regarding your surprise at "only" 32,000 Gazans having died so far, a previous answer points out that this is actually a significant percentage of Gaza's population. I would like to add, that given the devastation visited on Gaza, it is highly improbable that anyone can compile an accurate count of deaths. It is sadly likely that there are many dead under rubble, or dead in North Gaza, where there is a total breakdown of authority, whose deaths have not been counted.
