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Can sea level rises potentially impact territorial dispute claims, particularly in areas where maritime boundaries are defined by coastlines or specific geographical features?

Due to global warming, sea level rises will occur, and will result in things such as shifted coastlines. Some claims that depend on island and coastlines may no longer hold true as the geographical features change, or is this the case? Is there a legal framework for sorting these disputes in the event that there's significant changes due to global sea level rises?

Shifted Coastlines: As sea levels rise, coastlines may change. Land that was previously above water might become submerged, and vice versa. This can alter the baseline from which maritime boundaries are measured. If a coastal state's territory is affected, it could lead to disputes with neighboring states.

Island Disputes: Islands are often used as reference points for territorial claims. If an island's size is significantly reduced due to rising sea levels, it might not hold the same legal weight in territorial claims. For example, if an island can no longer sustain human habitation due to sea level rise, it may no longer qualify as a "full-fledged" island under international law.

Sayaman
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    An EEZ claim based on the definition of an island as something that is exposed at high tide might get nullified. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part8.htm – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Sep 25 '23 at 00:18
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    That might be asking us to predict the future. If the reverse was happening, it would clearly cause issues as new land would need divvying up. But this won't generate any new land, so rather than squabbling endlessly, countries may decide to just maintain claims as they existed previously. Or not. Then you get into weird things like the US liking to pretend there is no global warming. Or China that it has islands near the Spratleys. – Italian Philosophers 4 Monica Sep 25 '23 at 00:26
  • I cannot remember the name now. But I read in the past the story of the island, vital for a claim over a big sea area, reinforced by Japan with a concrete platform before it disappeared in the sea due to erosion. Nobody disputed the claim. You can also have a look to the floodmap. With one meter sea level rise, which is more than what is expected this century, the change in the coast lines would be too small to trigger any dispute. – FluidCode Sep 25 '23 at 17:01

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Question:

Can sea level rises potentially impact territorial dispute claims?

I think so. Anything that can be argued over, will be argued over it seems.

We know rivers changing impact territorial disputes. Take the modern border dispute between Croatia and Serbia in Europe. In 1947 when both country's were part of Yugoslavia, an effort was made to straighten the Danube river which formed the border between the two. The Arbitration Commission of the Peace Conference on Yugoslavia ruled that the border between federal units of Yugoslavia became inviolable international borders when Yugoslavia broke up in 1991. Now Croatia claims the border defined by the old path of the river prior to the hydro projects straightening the river, and Serbia claims the center of the current Danube river remains the boarder. They've been arguing about it for 30 years with about 100 square kilometres (39 square miles) in the balance.