Why is there so much talk about this picture of crowd size at the inauguration?

Question

Seems this has become the new issue of the new administration. Even Sean Spicer spent time during media briefing to talk about it and even went so far as to say

“This was the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period"

This is the picture in question:

were the two photos taken when Obama and Trump were giving their speeches?

Related "Were these photos of presidential inauguration crowds taken at the time claimed on the photos?" http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/36847/were-these-photos-of-presidential-inauguration-crowds-taken-at-the-time-claimed — Mawg says reinstate Monica, Jan 25 '17 at 08:58
To give some context, Trump received 4% of the Washington D.C. vote, and Obama received 92% of the vote in 2008. — Casey Kuball, Jan 25 '17 at 16:53
@Darthfett I didn't know that. What a striking result. More than in Manhattan. Looks like urbanization should favor dems then more than I thought. — Peter - Reinstate Monica, Jan 26 '17 at 16:26

score 125 · Accepted Answer · edited Apr 13 '17 at 12:46

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The pictures by themselves are not much of an issue; there are obviously fewer people in one than in other but there is not much more that can be concluded about it¹.

The issue is that in his habitual style, Trump and his aides could not stand any information that did not suit them, and engaged in claims that his inauguration had more attendance than Obama's (including attacks on the press that reported otherwise). Even when other data (number of metro rides that day) debunked that claim, they pressed their own claim, to the point of talking about alternative facts.²

Now, the issue of how many people there were is minor in itself, but the way Trump administration has reacted is worrisome: deny the data they do not want, make a major issue of a point without importance, attack anyone who produces information they do not like, and invent "alternative facts"³.

It is not the only incident of this type Trump has protagonized⁴, so it has lead to doubts about his personality. If this is how he reacts to bad data about the public attendance to his inauguration... what should the public expect from him if economic, intelligence, etc. data does not paint the picture that Trumps wants to see? This is the whole point of the debate.

¹For example, maybe more people prefered to get out for a weekend trip than to attend Trump's inauguration on a Friday, or it was colder, or whatever. If you want more details about how many people were at each inauguration, this question in skeptics addresses the issue.

²BTW, the video covers the whole issue pretty well -although with an humorous spin-, it is worth seeing it full.

³Alternative facts would be OK if Trump were POTUS in an alternative reality, since he is not it is desirable that he learns to use actual facts.

⁴Up to claiming fraud in the elections that nobody disputes he won, which is AFAIK a first in Western history.

edited Apr 13 '17 at 12:46

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answered Jan 24 '17 at 20:36

SJuan76

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Was going to post a similar answer, but this hits the nail on the head. It is very similar to the Streisand effect. You might consider linking this SE question for debunking Spicer's claim: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/36832 – Batman Jan 24 '17 at 20:40
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It appears that Trump is particularly sensitive about specific information which does not suit him: ratings, including election results and turnouts, and about his public image. This may reflect his history of a TV entertainer. He does not seem to take comparable offense from dissent in actual political key questions: Tillerson and Mattis on the importance of the NATO or the role of Russia or torture; Haley on Muslims; Price on health insurance for all; the Tea Party on spending. – Peter - Reinstate Monica Jan 26 '17 at 15:19
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@AlexanderO'Mara Something akin to the the Streisand effect appears in Bert Brecht's poem "The Invincible Inscription": Mussolini's soldiers try to erase an offending inscription in a wall, but the increasingly drastic efforts make the inscription only more and more visible, until it is actually chiseled in stone. A nice example of dialectics at work, and much older than Twitter. Foucault touches similar mechanisms by investigating how suppressed topics become actually ubiquitous, like sex in the Victorian age. – Peter - Reinstate Monica Jan 26 '17 at 15:31
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"Trump administration has reacted is worrysome" Of course, one could also say "the way the media has reacted is worrysome". Even today I was hearing news about this issue, while Trump was happily moving with his policies. – NPSF3000 Jan 26 '17 at 21:34
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@NPSF3000 - Yep, Trump has the ability to use things like this to distract the press from what he's really doing. Meanwhile he's at work on his wall, has effectively fired a whole bunch of federal workers, and is rolling merrily along on his schemes to destroy the federal government, the environment, and the rights of women and minorities. – Hot Licks Jan 27 '17 at 01:49
While Trump does have some over-sensitivity, this answer is an extremely biased interpretation and completely misses the underlying issue. It is essentially Democrat party talking points. – Jan 29 '17 at 07:04

score 8 · Answer 2 · answered Jan 24 '17 at 20:21

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With regards to the 2017 picture, we can fairly definitively say that it was not taken during Trump's speech. The crowd grew significantly just as the event began. There is a CNN gigapixel taken during Trump's speech that shows crowds in the areas that are empty in that picture.

answered Jan 24 '17 at 20:21

Alonzo Muncy

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This does not answer the question. – indigochild Jan 24 '17 at 20:52
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@indigochild yes it does, the question was the right pic the one taken during Trump's speech. That is demonstratively false. – Jan 24 '17 at 20:57
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@KDog - Maybe the problem is that there is two questions. One question is, "Why is there so much talk about this picture...?" - which this does not answer. I would agree that it answers a second question ("were the two photos taken when Obama and Trump were giving speeches"). I think that second question is off topic, and a better fit for Skeptics.SE. – indigochild Jan 24 '17 at 20:59
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@indigochild The second question would be off-topic at Skeptics.SE, as there is no notable claim about which to be skeptical. It's somewhat trivial, but I would regard it as on-topic here. – Brythan Jan 25 '17 at 00:48
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@KodosJohnson there is zero evidence to the contrary. The crowd was smaller at Trumps inauguration. There are no facts to debate there. The arguing about what time the photo was taken has no bearing on the crowd count that day. – Jan 26 '17 at 08:27
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Actually, the CNN picture you linked to does not show any evidence of "crowds in the areas that are empty in that picture". Quite the opposite, in fact, if you zoom in on the areas that are visible on both pictures, you'll see the fact same patterns of full and empty areas. – jcaron Jan 26 '17 at 16:41
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Crowd estimates are taken at the same time, just before the speech starts, when people are least likely to be moving around, either leaving or just ariving. Photos are taken from equivalent time periods. Cherry picking a later time when you might think the crowd looks better does not preclude the possibility that the other crowd also showed similar growth. So, yes, it was not taken DURING the speech. That was by design, and it was for a specific reason, and disclosed. It's also irrelevant in terms of whether one was a bigger crowd than the other, by a significant amount. – PoloHoleSet Jan 26 '17 at 17:11
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The comparison of the pictures is irrelevant. The first inauguration of the first black president was an unprecedented historical event. Trump's inauguration was a "routine" transition after a contentious election. There is no reason why Trump's (or anyone's) attendence would be expected to rise to the size of Obama's first. No comparison was made to Obama's second inauguration, which were more similar events. The only purpose of making such a comparison was to belittle Trump. – Jan 29 '17 at 07:20

score 6 · Answer 3 · answered Jan 24 '17 at 23:03

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Attendance at the inauguration has become a widely reported story because it's used by folks in the media to illustrate excitement behind a candidate. Whether rightly, or wrongly, it's become a point of comparison that managed to be a major point in President Trump's first press conference.

Politifact has an excellent analysis on the claims made in the press conference that provide data-backed analysis, rather than opinion or spin.

answered Jan 24 '17 at 23:03

LearnWorkLearn

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The article that you claim is "data-backed analysis" is opinion and spin using cherry picked numbers to appear credible. – Dunk Jan 25 '17 at 19:07
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What specific evidence do you have to challenge the content as anything but fact? – LearnWorkLearn Jan 25 '17 at 19:42
Easy, start with the source's questionable integrity. Second anytime someone uses "unnamed", the report is automatically suspicious if not totally discredited as in "that two unnamed law enforcement officials told him". Third, the picture was obviously not taken during the inauguration as there are other pictures proving that fact. 4th - Listing EXACT numbers for other inaugurations and a wide estimate for Trump's. The intent was to mislead into thinking attendance was low. 5th - Using the Communist News Network as a source of statistical data discredits the entire report. – Dunk Feb 08 '17 at 16:46

Why is there so much talk about this picture of crowd size at the inauguration?

3 Answers3