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Suppose $X$ and $Y$ are independent Poisson random variables with parameters $\lambda$ and $\mu$, respectively. Find the conditional probability mass function $P(X=k\mid X+Y=n)$.


Don't know how to approach this. Additionally, the question asks me to find $E[X\mid X+Y=n]$. What is the distinction? Does it have a different distribution?

Dilip Sarwate
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Bob the Builds
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  • It turns out (but perhaps you know this already) that $X+Y$ has Poisson distribution parameter $\lambda+\mu$. Calculate the conditional probability using $\Pr(A|B)=\Pr(A\cap B)/\Pr(B)$. You will get something that looks very familiar. And then the expectation question will be just quoting a result you know. – André Nicolas May 09 '15 at 22:30

2 Answers2

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You need to provide more context for your question; in particular, even if you say you don't know how to approach the problem, you need to be able to demonstrate what you DO know.

The one question I will answer, however, is that $$\Pr[X = k \mid X + Y = n]$$ is a conditional probability. Specifically, it is the probability that, given you observe the sum of the Poisson variables to be equal to $n$, that you also observed $X = k$. So, obviously, this probability cannot be less than zero, nor greater than one.

By contrast, $$\operatorname{E}[X \mid X + Y = n]$$ is a conditional expectation. It is, in some sense, the "average value" of $X$ given that the sum $X+Y$ was observed to be $n$. This is a number that need not be between zero and one; in fact, if $n$ is very large, say $1000$, we would also intuitively reason that the expected value of $X$ should be quite a bit larger than one.

heropup
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First you need to find the distribution of $X+Y$, there are several ways to do this,you can use the moment generating function to find the distribution of $X+Y$

$E[e^{t(X+Y)}]=E[e^{tX}]E[e^{tY}]=e^{\lambda(e^t-1)}e^{\mu(e^t-1)}=e^{(\lambda+\mu)(e^t-1)}$~Poisson($\lambda+\mu)$. After you can computate the probability making $$P(X=k|X+Y=n)=\frac{P(X=k)P(Y=x-n)}{P(X+Y=n)}$$

Roland
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