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Are there any formulas to predict population density of a geography based on known geographic factors like water, food etc. in the vicinity. Either for humans or any living organisms.

Happyman74
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  • Of course for intelligent species this will be heavily dependent on whether the society has reached full evolution maturity (like has their population increased long enough, their choices been made long enough, so they are using the land in fully optimal way... something I'm not sure most places in our world can claim even today)... plus technology levels, whether they source their food from elsewhere, the characteristic of the people (how important is space to them), their economy/government setup, etc. It's an interesting question, but I'd think there's no easy answer for us – JeopardyTempest Dec 22 '23 at 23:02
  • For for more basic organisms, I'd think it's more straightforward and more heavily studied. Though it'll still have some complexity (gotta be intimately connected to predators, for one... and also related to the specifics of the organism [do they need more or less space, do they hibernate, what types of foods can they eat, etc]). – JeopardyTempest Dec 22 '23 at 23:04

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The main reason why people move to some area or multiply more or less in some area is the already existent distribution and the way of living of the existent population. For example, if there is a cross of two roads, the first one connects large cities A and B and the second one connects also large cities C and D, obviously a new town appears on the cross. The speed of growth of the town depends on the importance of the cities A, B, C, and D in comparison to other cities of the land, the character of goods, transported along the roads, and so on. Naturally, the geographic information is also important.

So, the derivations of the population and industries' densities depend on more or less static geographic factors and the researched densities in the wide area. The dependency on geography alone simply does not exist.

We know that complex dependency exists, but we can only guess about its character and make some applications that can model the development, but with great mistakes.

For example, in the early Middle Ages in the lands of Eastern Europe, Slavs settled between rivers, on hills, and Ugrofinnish tribes settled along rivers. According to geography alone, they should try to settle in the same places and fight for them. But they had different economic processes, and different customs and could easily coexist, striving for different points in the same area.

Gangnus
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Population density is equal to the total population divided by the area it takes up. The area would likely be held constant when calculating change in population density, so I think a population formula would be all you need. That being said, I don't think a single formula would be sufficient. Instead, you would need several formulas that relate population factors and a model that can test various assumptions. At a minimum, you need birth rates and death rates, but those should probably be made dynamic and based on other factors. You could use the "Stella" program to build such a model. There are trainings and examples available here.

f.thorpe
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Humans don't move to places based on the availability of water and food. They bring these things to them as necessary, and that has enabled big cities in places that are otherwise quite dry (say, Las Vegas or Denver) or that do not lend themselves much to agriculture (Fairbanks).

Wolfgang Bangerth
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    I'd suggest that's only in very recent times, the last century or so mostly. Part of the reason technology is so important to the question for people. – JeopardyTempest Jan 11 '24 at 09:27
  • Nah, long-distance trade networks are vastly older than just the last century. Here is an example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damascus_steel . Here is an even older one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road . Long-distance water transport in canals is also ancient. The Romans built aqueducts, with the longest 240 km long. The first agricultural irrigation canals date back to 6000 BC. – Wolfgang Bangerth Jan 11 '24 at 19:07
  • Trade networks indeed existed, but pretty convinced they generally weren't efficient enough to support large populations devoid of significant local agriculture? And the technology to bring in water was also more limited? – JeopardyTempest Jan 12 '24 at 00:16
  • You're not giving our forefathers and foremothers enough credit. The Greeks built canals because they found that horses can only carry a few 100 kg, but they can pull a boat of 10+ tons. They transported a lot of material. The Romans transported millions of cubic meters of water. Ancient Rome had a population of 1 million people. When the Spanish arrived, Mexico City had a population in the range of 100,000 to 200,000. Cities of this size cannot support themselves without the ability to transport food and water over long distances, and so they did. – Wolfgang Bangerth Jan 13 '24 at 05:23